Uncertain times create a demand for forecasts. Readers want to know when inflation will slow down, a political crisis or military conflict will end, and new leaders or effective solutions will come. During such periods, articles by opinion leaders, experts, and even astrologers and fortune tellers with forecasts receive millions of views. This situation creates a temptation for journalists to enter this shaky ground and, instead of deeply analyzing the current situation or past events, begin to create images of the future. Is it worth making predictions, and what prospects and dangers does it open for a journalist?
Lifting the Veil of the Future: Pros and Cons of Forecasts
Why Should a Journalist Take on Forecasting?
To understand the popularity of prediction articles, you need to find the root of readers’ interest in the future. Some might say that this is ordinary curiosity, because the future, unlike the past and present, is hidden from us. But such a reason does not explain why interest in forecasts wanes in times of stability and prosperity.
A more realistic version is that interest in the future is fueled by fear, uncertainty, and the desire to find confirmation that difficult times will someday end. People are tired of constant crises, lack of money or certainty, the need to take out FCLOANS, etc. They need hope that negative trends will soon end and life will improve. In this regard, a journalist making forecasts can act as a psychotherapist, regardless of what forecast they give:
- If their attitude in the articles is optimistic, they relieve the stress of the readers and give them hope.
- If they give a pessimistic picture of the future, this also may have a positive effect. The reader understands that the current situation is simply wonderful compared to what the future will be like.
Thus, if you want to make forecasts in the media, do it, and you will always find your grateful readers. But don’t forget about the dangers of forecasts, which can negatively affect a journalist’s career.
Why Should a Journalist Be Wary of Forecasts?
Authors of predictions should remember that their opinions are always probabilistic. This means that some of your shots in the future will miss the target. And if you are ready to forgive yourself for mistakes, the reader does not always do this, especially if they admire your opinion. Forecasts are memorable, especially if they are presented by a charismatic, talented author who can beautifully package them in the right words. And what happens next?
- If the forecast comes true, readers respect the journalist even more and listen to their opinion more attentively.
- If the forecast does not come true, the reputation of its author begins to crumble. You made others believe in an image of the future that turned out to be empty. After two or three unfulfilled predictions, readers will stop taking your words seriously, realizing that these are most likely your fantasies.
Therefore, before you go down the slippery path of forecasts, carefully assess the risks. Do you need to feed people’s hopes or fears, or is it better to stay within the analysis of the present? Alternatively, consider a third, middle path that allows you to balance the interest in forecasts with the risks of making them.
The Middle Way in Forecasting: Share Responsibility with Experts
If you still think that analysis of the current situation in politics, economics, fashion, cinema, and any other area is not interesting without forecasts, consider the middle path. In this case, you will give predictions in your articles based on expert opinion. This way, you solve two problems at the same time:
- The authorship of the forecast goes to another person, which means you are not responsible for an unfulfilled forecast.
- In the process of preparing an article, you talk to various experts. They have various opinions and visions of the future, and some of them are significantly different from yours. This will allow you to see the situation more broadly. And you will understand how foolish it is to insist on your version of the future.
The Bottom Line
Human time unfolds in three directions, which means interest in the future cannot be avoided. However, due to the impossibility of its direct observation, errors in prognosis prevail. So look for balanced approaches that allow you to satisfy your readers’ interests while remaining in the zone of critical thinking, without mistaking dreams or fears about the future for reality.